The Quiet Before The Storm

The Moment Before

Before the unraveling.
Before the impulsive trade.
Before saying the thing that was better left unsaid.
There is a moment.

It’s not loud.
It’s not chaotic.
It’s not even dramatic.

It’s quiet. Still.
Almost eerily calm.

It’s carries this undercurrent of anxiety.
A subtle and underlying feeling of stress.

It’s the third or fourth boundary you crossed with yourself.
The compounding weight of moving forward while abandoning yourself.

And then.
You do it.

You hit “enter” on a trade that’s double your size.
You say or do something hurtful to a friend or partner.
You snap at someone at work.

You’ve hit your threshold and tip over it.

And after, you say:

“I lost control.”
“I blew up.”
“I don’t know what happened.”

I used to call it losing control. The pop off, the overtrading, the cutting words…But I’ve come to realize, it’s not a loss of control. It’s our nervous systems saying enough!

When the spiral hits, it’s not random. It’s your body’s final attempt to get your attention. It’s your nervous system saying: I’m overloaded. I’m not okay. I can’t keep going like this.

Even in that moment, there’s still a choice.

It might not feel like one. It might feel like everything is already in motion. But just before the break, there’s a split second, a decision point.

You can pause. You can take a breath. You can sit with the discomfort and return to yourself before things go any further.

Or you can keep going. You can:

• Place the trade you know is driven by emotion.

• Send the message you’ll regret.

• Escalate the situation and watch it unravel.

You don’t do this because you want to. You do it because in that moment, it feels easier than sitting with what you’re feeling. It’s easier to chase temporary relief than to sit with the slow, quiet ache of knowing you’ve been drifting from yourself.

How Did We Even Get Here?

This kind of moment doesn’t just show up out of nowhere. It’s built quietly, and gradually, through a series of small decisions that feel harmless in isolation, but they add up.

Most of the time, it starts with breaking small promises to yourself. You tell yourself you won’t take another trade today, but then you do. You say you’ll log off after one more meeting, but you push through another task. You tell yourself you’ll speak calmly, even though your triggered.

None of these choices feel dramatic. But they slowly chip away at your self-trust. It’s slowly moving away from yourself, ignoring signals, your needs, overriding limits, pushing past what you know doesn’t feel right…and eventually you hit your limit.

What’s often missed is that these patterns, especially in high-pressure areas like trading or work, is that it tends to look productive on the surface. You’re showing up. You’re performing. You’re pushing forward. But inside, you’ve have hit your max capacity.

Burnout doesn’t always look like exhaustion. Sometimes it looks like momentum. Like drive. Like progress.

Burnout can look like:

• Making real progress and still feeling like it’s not enough.

• Being so focused on your goals that you start doing things you said you wouldn’t do, trading outside your system, avoiding necessary conversations, pushing through emotional exhaustion.

• Believing that overriding your own needs is what it takes to succeed.

This isn’t failure or weakness. This is what happens when you forget that sustainability isn’t built through more effort, it’s built through a deeper connection to yourself. This is what happens when you value the outcome more than the process that protects you, the process that actually leads to the outcome you soooo very much desire.

You’re not broken. You’re probably just at capacity. And you don’t need a new strategy, you need space and to sit with yourself.

There is still a path forward. But it won’t come from powering through.

So next time, if you find yourself in that split second of calm, before the reactive decision, before the unraveling, when the choice is there… red pill or blue pill… will you finally choose not to abandon yourself?

And better yet! Can we challenge ourselves to notice the subtle signs of burnout before we get to that point? Can we slow down before our system has to scream?

Because that’s where real self-trust is rebuilt. In the noticing. In the pause. In choosing presence over the pattern, one small moment at a time.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 remains under pressure after breaking its October 2023 uptrend earlier this month. Last week, price attempted to bounce but stalled at the short-term downtrend line from the February 2025 high. That rejection led to another rollover, with the index closing just above the 5575 level, an area that has acted as both resistance and support throughout mid-to-late 2024.

Momentum has clearly shifted to the downside, and while price has moved sideways over the past three weeks, it remains below key weekly moving averages (10EMA, 20EMA, and closed below the 50SMA again last week). The longer-term uptrend from October 2022 is still intact, with its trendline now converging near the 5340–5400 zone, a major confluence of potential support if this decline deepens.

For bulls, reclaiming 5780 and the moving averages, is key to regaining control. For bears, a decisive break below 5340 would threaten the long-term trend. And yes, this could happen. We are just about 9% down from February’s peak, and we have seen worse declines in the recent years:

Let’s look forward at potential scenarios for the SPX.

🟢 Bullish

• SPX reclaims the 10EMA and 20EMA (currently ~5686 and ~5731).

• Clears the short-term downtrend line from the February high.

• A strong weekly close above 5780, with volume and both EMAs reclaimed.

• Reclaiming these levels could shift momentum back to the bulls and open a path toward the all-time high near 6123.

🔴 Bearish Scenario

• Price fails to reclaim moving averages and breaks below 5575.

• Downside targets the 5400–5340 zone, which includes:

  • The October 2022 uptrend line,

  • Prior support from Sept 2024,

  • Resistance-turned-support from May 2024.

• A break below 5340 with strong volume and no bounce off trendline would mark a major trend shift and could invite further downside.

⚪️ Neutral Scenario

• The S&P continues to chop between 5580 and 5780 (a range that’s held for the past three weeks).

• Price remains stuck below the EMAs but above key support, showing indecision rather than direction.

• Awaiting a clear catalyst to break the range.

• Watch for overlapping candles and low conviction closes within the 5580-5570 zone.

Stock Spotlight: CVNA (Carvana)

Going forward, I want to try a new format where I stick to one stock for the month. I feel this shift will help me refine my chartwork, and help me to share more actionable notes with you. For April, CVNA is my pick. Here is my analysis and breakdown of potential scenarios.

Carvana has been testing the strength of its uptrend line for several weeks. The trendline that began in January/February 2024 was broken four weeks ago, but not decisively. That week, CVNA closed right on the line, leaving a tail below. In the weeks that followed, price hovered just below the trendline, showing continued indecision without clear follow-through in either direction.

During the week of March 17, CVNA made a renewed push higher, and last week it extended that move, only to pull back after hitting one of two downtrend lines I have drawn from the November 2024 high.

Now, price is sitting directly on top of a key horizontal level around 203–204, which has held major significance in recent months. This zone acted as support ahead of the explosive earnings breakout in late October 2024, and again in mid-January 2025 as the launch point for Carvana’s biggest run this year. It also intersects with a dotted downtrend line I’ve drawn based on the wicks from late November to mid-December, adding to its technical weight.

At this point, CVNA is caught between two downtrend lines I have drawn:

• A solid downtrend line from November 2024 to early March 2025 (acting as resistance),

• And the dotted downtrend line drawn from wick-to-wick in late 2024 (currently acting as support).

The question now: Can CVNA hold this 203–204 zone and make another push toward the 225–230 resistance area, or does it break lower and continue its decline?

🟢 Bullish Scenario

• CVNA holds the 203–204 support zone, where a key horizontal level intersects with the dotted downtrend line.

• Price pushes through 219–220, beginning to test overhead supply.

• A clean breakout above 225–230 would be significant, that zone includes the solid downtrend line, horizontal resistance, and the 50SMA.

🎯 Targets 

A break above 203–204: 220 → 234 → potential 260

🔑 Potential Entry Points:

• A bounce off 203–204 with a strong green candle and volume.

• Or a breakout above 219–220, followed by a successful retest and hold.

🔴 Bearish Scenario

• Price fails to hold the 203–204 zone and breaks lower on volume.

• A breakdown here would breach both the horizontal level and the dotted downtrend line, signaling potential loss of recent support.

• Support zones below include 188–189 and 178–180.

🎯 Targets 

A break below 203–204: 188 → 178 → potential 160

🔑 Potential To Short:

• Breakdown below 203 with no bounce on retest.

• Acceleration below 188, especially on volume expansion.

⚪️ Neutral Scenario

• CVNA may continue to chop between 203 and 219, caught between support and layered resistance.

• Multiple moving averages overhead (weekly 10EMA, weekly 20EMA, daily 50SMA) may act as barriers without a strong catalyst.

🔍 Consider sitting out if:

• Daily candles remain tight, indecisive, or overlapping within the 203–219 range.

• No volume surge or breakout from range by midweek.

For a daily chart swing trader, earnings remain one of the biggest catalysts for tradeable moves. We are heading into that window with some companies reporting in April and others, like CVNA, releasing results in early May. Until then, it's possible we remain range-bound as the market waits for confirmation and clarity.